Well, we have been at the top and the bottom several times. It would be nice if we could have a gradual comeback, 2-4% per year appreciation like in the old days (prior to 2004). It certainly is a good time to buy and hold. If you are an investor, rents are up and vacancies are down. Some of our clients this year purchased for their future retirement and are renting until then. It is also a great first time home buyer environment, with low interest rates and a plethora of loan programs. Let us know if we can help and don’t miss the ride.
Annualized growth from 2011 – 2016:
Home prices in Bend are 45.2% off their peak in Q1 2007, which could make it good time to invest. Bend’s median family income is close to the national average of $61,600, but unemployment is high at 12.6%.
With interest rates at historic lows and home prices headed down as well, now is the BEST time to buy in Bend!
The Best Housing Markets For The Next 5 Years
#2 Bend, Oregon
The time to buy in Bend is now. The market is projected to trough in Q3 before several years of accelerating growth. Home prices are down over 42% from peak.
Oh, we sure hope so….
It’s not usually welcome news when the landlord hikes your rent. But for the housing market, rising rents may be one of the most hopeful signs in years.
The markets for rented and purchased homes usually move in opposite directions. When the housing market is hot and more people are buying homes, rents tend to stay low or go down, because there are fewer renters.
But when high interest rates or other factors cool the housing market, more people rent. Since it takes awhile for builders to add more units, the supply-demand mismatch drives rents up.
As with many other things, that natural relationship between rented and purchased homes got upended during the recession. Everybody knows about the housing bust, which got started as builders slapped up too many homes and lenders gave mortgages to millions who couldn’t afford them and were doomed to default. In the inevitable shakeout, a record number of foreclosures
led to an oversupply of homes and a sharp pullback in lending. And many homeowners became renters. But instead of going up, rents fell, too. That’s because of the way people reacted to lost jobs and falling incomes. Young people moved back in with their parents. Others doubled or tripled up to cut living expenses. Spouses in troubled marriages toughed it out for a few more years instead of getting divorced, because they couldn’t afford two places to live. Overall, the demand for rental units went down.
Now, all those overfilled households are finally starting to get some breathing room. New renters are emerging at rates similar to the late ’90s—when the economy was on a tear—as grown kids finally wave goodbye to their parents and many others move into a place of their own. That’s pushing high vacancy rates back down toward levels they were at before the recession—and sending rents back up.
That’s what we say too. Our inventory levels are way down. And new construction is way down. There are huge opportunities in Bend now. Don’t miss the boat! Or should I say house!
Forget stocks. Don’t bet on gold. After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset class in America is housing.
From his wide-rimmed cowboy hat to his roper boots, Mike Castleman fits moviedom’s image of the lanky Texas rancher. On a recent March evening, Castleman is feeding cattle biscuits to his two pet longhorn steers, Big Buddy and Little Buddy, on his 460-acre Bar Ten Creek Ranch in Dripping Springs, a hamlet outside Austin in the Texas Hill Country. The spread is a medley of meandering streams, craggy cliffs, and centuries-old oaks. But even in this pastoral setting, his mind keeps returning to a subject he knows as well as any expert around: the housing market. “I’m a dirt-road economist who sees what’s happening on the ground, and in 35 years I’ve never seen a shortage of new construction like the one I’m seeing today,” declares Castleman, 70, now offering a biscuit to his miniature donkey Thumper. “The talking heads who are down on real estate will hate to hear this, but America needs to build a lot more houses. And in most markets the price of new homes is fixin’ to rise, not fall.”
Castleman is in a unique position to know. As the founder and CEO of a company called Metrostudy, he’s spent more than three decades tracking real-time data on the country’s inventory of new homes. Each quarter he dispatches 500 inspectors to literally drive through 45,000 subdivisions from Baltimore to Sacramento. The inspectors examine 5 million finished lots, one at a time, and record whether they contain a house that’s under construction, one that’s finished and for sale, or a home that’s sold. Metrostudy covers 19 states, or around 65% of the U.S. housing market, including all the ones hardest hit by the crash: Florida, California, Arizona, and Nevada. The company’s client list includes virtually every major homebuilder and bank — from Pulte (PHM) and KB Home (KBH) to Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
The key figures that Metrostudy collects, and that those clients prize, are the number of homes that are vacant and for sale in each city, and the number of months it takes to sell all of them. Together those figures measure inventory — the key metric in determining whether a market has a surplus or a shortage of new housing.
It’s a good time to buy a home or invest in a property.
With so many distressed properties on the market, housing affordability has jumped to levels not seen in 20 years.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) for the fourth quarter 2010, reveals that 73.9 percent of all new and existing homes sold were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,400.
That record-setting level beat the last record high of 72.5 percent set during the first quarter of 2009. It was also the eighth consecutive quarter that the index has been above 70 percent. Until 2009, the HOI rarely topped 65 percent and never reached 70 percent.
“Today’s report shows that housing affordability at the end of 2010 was at its highest level since we started computing the HOI,” said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
Unfortunately, tight money makes it tough to take advantage of low prices, likely to get even lower.
“However, while this is good news for consumers, both home buyers and builders continue to confront extremely tight credit conditions, and this remains a significant obstacle to many potential home sales,” Nielsen added.
U.S. 30-year mortgage rates have jumped above 5% for the first time since last spring, in a rapid rise that could present a challenge to the still-troubled housing market.
The average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed to 5.05% in the week ended Thursday, according to a widely watched survey by government-backed mortgage company Freddie Mac, up from 4.81% a week ago. It was the highest rate in the survey since April.
Rising mortgage rates are an immediate consequence of the large jump in the U.S. government’s borrowing costs in recent weeks. Mortgage rates tend to move in line with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which closed Thursday at 3.712%, up from its October low of 2.381%.
The sharp rise in mortgage rates has caught some investors and economists off guard, and will likely be watched closely by the Federal Reserve, which has been buying Treasury bonds in an effort to keep rates down and bolster economic activity.
In some ways, the rate increase reflects positive news: Rates are rising in large part because there are signs the recovery is strengthening. As the economy gains steam, investors demand higher rates to compensate for an expected uptick in inflation. And if the economy can generate stronger job and wage growth, higher rates may not be a problem for housing.
But many worry that the housing market is lagging behind other parts of the economy. One risk is that higher rates could deter buying, putting further pressure on prices and squelching hope of a housing recovery for now. Many analysts expect nationwide home prices to decline 5% to 10% in the months ahead.
Still, rates remain near historically low levels, and the market has withstood much higher rates in the past. By at least one measure, housing affordability has returned to its levels before the housing boom collapsed.
Keith Hembre, chief economist at Nuveen Asset Management in Minneapolis, says rates still need to rise 0.25 to 0.5 percentage point before they become a hindrance. “But it’s certainly not helpful,” he said.
We believe we are also seeing a stabilization of prices here in Bend. The median sales price for single family residences in December was $170,000 and $175,000 in January. We will continue to update you as to the overall health of market as we go forward.
Home sales rebounded in 49 states during the fourth quarter with 78 markets – just over half of the available metropolitan areas – experiencing price gains from a year ago, while most of the rest saw price weakness, according to the latest survey by the National Association of REALTORS®.
Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, jumped 15.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.8 million in the fourth quarter from 4.16 million in the third quarter, but were 19.5 percent below a surge to an unsustainable cyclical peak of 5.97 million in the fourth quarter of 2009, which was driven by the initial deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit.
In the fourth quarter, the median existing single-family home price rose in 78 out of 152 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) from the fourth quarter of 2009, including 10 with double-digit increases; three were unchanged and 71 areas had price declines. In the fourth quarter of 2009 a total of 67 MSAs experienced annual price gains.
The national median existing single-family price was $170,600 in the fourth quarter, up 0.2 percent from $170,300 in the fourth quarter of 2009. The median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. Distressed homes, typically sold at discount of 10 to 15 percent, accounted for 34 percent of fourth quarter sales, little changed from 32 percent a year earlier.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, is encouraged by the trend. “Home sales clearly recovered in the latter part of 2010 and are helping to absorb the inventory, including many distressed properties. Even with foreclosures continuing to enter the inventory pipeline, they’ve been selling well and housing supplies have trended down,” he said. “A recovery to normalcy requires steady trimming of the inventories.”
Yun added, “An improving housing market and job growth will go hand in hand. The housing recovery will mean faster job growth.” He projects about 150,000 to 200,000 jobs will be added to the economy this year from an anticipated 300,000 additional home sales in 2011.
Yun further noted, “Better than expected sales and/or strengthening in home values can have an even bigger job impact as consumer spending would naturally rise from a housing wealth recovery affecting a vast number of American families.”
NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said a very favorable affordability environment is a huge factor in the recovery. “Although job growth has been relatively modest and credit is tight, you can’t underestimate the impact of historically high housing affordability conditions,” he said.
“Mortgage interest rates recently hit record lows, median family income has edged up and prices in most areas have been stable following the correction from the housing boom. For people with good credit and long term plans, it’s hard to imagine a better opportunity than what we see today,” Phipps said. “Unfortunately the flow of credit is unnecessarily tight and is constraining the pace of the housing and job growth recoveries.”
The title of the presentation is ‘How To Make a Fortune’ with the subtext (my compliance team cautions that this is a tongue in cheek title). Whether it can help you make a fortune or not, it certainly has a wealth of information about the current housing market and how smart property investing could pay off big.
Pershing Square Capital Management and founder Bill Ackman are bullish on housing and feel there has never been a better time to get into the game.
They firm cites a variety of reasons, including low interest rates, significant declines in property values, and the potential to get advantageous government loans in support.
Considering how many investors out there are still negative on housing, it’s an interesting view point to take in.
And, in a lot of ways, it makes sense. If a buyer intends to live in the home, mortgage payments now might be cheaper than renting. That doesn’t even consider the tax advantages.